Category Archives: U.S.A

The South China Sea: Lynchpin of the Shifting Strategic Balance; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0022/2017 The paper was presented at International Conference on the South China Sea: Impact on Major Power Relations and Regional stability, Co-organised the Centre of Asia and Globalization and the Australia-China Relations Institute University of Technology Sydney. February 10-11, 2017. Part 1. Introduction This paper addresses the critical importance of the South China Sea in international politics, and how the dispute has become an arena for the world’s major powers… Read Article →

Vietnam and the South China Sea’s Roiled Waters; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0015/2017 Courtesy: Policy Forum Shining a spotlight on Vietnam’s militarisation in the Spratlys Vietnam’s military activities in the South China Sea, while not on the same scale as China’s, pre-date them considerably and are squarely aimed at maintaining a balance of power in the region. On 11 January US Secretary of State-designate Rex Tillerson sparked a media storm in China during his confirmation hearing when he responded… Read Article →

Military Modernization and Capacity Building in the Philippines and Vietnam; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0014/2017 Courtesy: Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Introduction This paper focuses on force modernization and capacity building in the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Vietnam People’s Army (VPA) from the 1990s to the present. This paper is divided into five parts. Part one provides a historical background to force modernization in both countries during the period from the 1990s to around 2010 and… Read Article →

Why is Japan’s PM visiting Pearl Harbor now?; By Shastri Ramachandaran

CAS article no. 0167/2016 Courtesy: CCTVNews Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to Pearl Harbor on December 27 2016 is loaded with significance. First and foremost, it is important because this is the first time a Japanese prime minister will participate in a public ceremony at the US naval base in Hawaii that Japanese forces struck on December 7, 1941. The first prime minister to visit the memorial was reportedly… Read Article →

US To Withdraw From TPP; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0164/2016 Courtesy: Carlyle A. Thayer, “US To Withdraw From TPP,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 22,2016 Q1. Could you please share some thoughts when Donald Trump announced that the US will withdraw from TPP? Donald Trump’s release of a video announcing his priorities for his first 100 days in office came as a surprise. His first priority was to announced that the US would withdraw from the TPP. He made that pledge during his campaign…. Read Article →

Xi in LatAm: China Expands Footprints in the Region; By Shastri Ramachandaran

CAS article no. 0163/2016 Courtesy: China.org.cn Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ongoing visit to Latin America – from November 17 to 23 – comes at an opportune juncture, with the U.S. and other powers caught in domestic situations and global uncertainties that preclude their proactive engagement abroad. And President Xi, who is on course for state visits to Ecuador, Peru and Chile, can be expected to make the most of extending… Read Article →

Vietnam’s Foreign Policy in an Era of Rising Sino-U.S. Competition: Providing Equity to the Major Powers While Pursuing Proactive International Integration; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0159/2016 The following is text of the author’s Presentation to a Conference on Great Power Rivalries, Domestic Politics, and Southeast Asian Foreign Policy at The Dorothy Borg Research Project, Weatherhead East Asia Institute, Kellog Conference Center, International Affairs Building, Columbia University, New York on  November 10-11, 2016.  Introduction Vietnam is a semi-authoritarian one-party state ruled by the Vietnam Communist Party (VCP). Vietnam’s political system parallels that of… Read Article →

South China Sea: From Turbidity to Semblance of Tranquility; By Cmde. R. S. Vasan

CAS article no. 0158/2016 Courtesy: National Maritime Foundation The unfolding events in the South China Sea (SCS) in the last one decade plus has been tumultuous to say the least. The year Code of Conduct (CoC).[1]was signed in Cambodia (2002) can be taken as the bench mark year when the members of the ASEAN and China agreed on prescribed methods for preventing escalation of conflict over territory and resources. It… Read Article →

Malaysia: Is Najib Following in Duterte’s Footsteps?; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0156/2016 Courtesy: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Malaysia: Is Najib Following in Duterte’s Footsteps?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 1, 2016. Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak’s visit to China is pretty interesting. It looks like Malaysia is getting ready to buy various military assets from Beijing and has already awarded some infrastructure projects to the Chinese. And, of course, this follows Philippine President Duterte’s own rebalancing toward a more… Read Article →

Malaysia: Prime Minister Najib Visits China; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0155/2016 Courtesy: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Malaysia: Prime Minister Najib Visits China,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 1, 2016. We request your assessment on Malaysia PM Najib Razak’s visit to China this week, based on the issues raised below. Q1- There are reports that Malaysia will be buying up to ten littoral mission ships from China in the first defence deal between both sides. Among the ten deals… Read Article →