Category Archives: Vietnam

Vietnam and the South China Sea’s Roiled Waters; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0015/2017 Courtesy: Policy Forum Shining a spotlight on Vietnam’s militarisation in the Spratlys Vietnam’s military activities in the South China Sea, while not on the same scale as China’s, pre-date them considerably and are squarely aimed at maintaining a balance of power in the region. On 11 January US Secretary of State-designate Rex Tillerson sparked a media storm in China during his confirmation hearing when he responded… Read Article →

Military Modernization and Capacity Building in the Philippines and Vietnam; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0014/2017 Courtesy: Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Introduction This paper focuses on force modernization and capacity building in the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Vietnam People’s Army (VPA) from the 1990s to the present. This paper is divided into five parts. Part one provides a historical background to force modernization in both countries during the period from the 1990s to around 2010 and… Read Article →

Vietnam: Should Tet (Lunar New Year) Be Abolished?; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0008/2017 Courtesy: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam: Should Tet (Lunar  New Year) Be Abolished?” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 21, 2017. We request your opinion whether or not Vietnam should abolish the traditional celebrations on Lunar New Year (Tet).We seek your views on the questions below: Q1. As someone with years of observation and research on Vietnam, China and Southeast Asia, what are your thoughts on the traditional Lunar New Year? ANSWER:… Read Article →

Vietnam: Exxon Mobil Signs Agreements to Develop Vietnam’s Largest Gas Project; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0004/2017 Courtesy: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam: Exxon Mobil Signs Agreements to Develop Vietnam’s Largest Gas Project,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 16, 2017. Could you please provide some background and an assessment of reports that ExxonMobile signed an agreement with PetroVietnam last week during the visit of Secretary of State John Kerry to Vietnam. What is the significance of this deal? ANSWER: On 13 January, PetroVietnam Exploration Production Company signed two agreements with Exxon… Read Article →

Vietnam’s Foreign Policy in an Era of Rising Sino-U.S. Competition: Providing Equity to the Major Powers While Pursuing Proactive International Integration; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0159/2016 The following is text of the author’s Presentation to a Conference on Great Power Rivalries, Domestic Politics, and Southeast Asian Foreign Policy at The Dorothy Borg Research Project, Weatherhead East Asia Institute, Kellog Conference Center, International Affairs Building, Columbia University, New York on  November 10-11, 2016.  Introduction Vietnam is a semi-authoritarian one-party state ruled by the Vietnam Communist Party (VCP). Vietnam’s political system parallels that of… Read Article →

Vietnam’s Strategy of ‘Cooperating and Struggling’ With China Over Maritime Disputes in the South China Sea; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0132/2016 Courtesy: Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 3(2), 2016, 200-220. Abstract Since the normalization of relations in 1991, bilateral relations between Vietnam and China have developed into one of normal or mature asymmetry. This is a relationship in which China seeks acknowledgement of its primacy and Vietnam seeks recognition of its autonomy. Maritime disputes in the South China Sea have emerged as the major irritant in… Read Article →

South China Sea Arbitration ruling: A chance for India to rev up its foreign policy; By Asma Masood

CAS article no. 0122/2016 Courtesy: Chennai Centre for China Studies On July 12 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague delivered its verdict on the case brought by Philippines countering China’s claims in the South China Sea. The court ruled as follows[1]: China has no historic rights within the nine-dash line. Besides, land features in the Spratlys were judged to be mere rocks and not islands, thus… Read Article →

Vietnam’s Love-Hate Relationship with China: A Historical Explanation; By Prof. V. Suryanarayan

CAS article no. 0097/2016 Courtesy: South Asia Analysis Group China had always been and would continue to be a key point of reference to the foreign policy makers of Southeast Asian countries, especially for Vietnam. Sharing land and maritime boundaries with China, Vietnam, from very early times, had been profoundly influenced by its giant neighbor in the north. It has shared cultural traditions; in fact, Prof. Arnold Toynbee, in his… Read Article →

Assessing Obama’s Visit to Vietnam- The Way Forward; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0082/2016 Courtesy: Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 24 2016 We request your assessment on the outcome of President Obama’s visit to Vietnam with specific reference to the following issues: Q1- What is the future of Vietnam-US relations after Obama’s visit? Any changes? ANSWER: The presidents of Vietnam and the United States have committed themselves to increase cooperation across all areas of common interest included in the 2013… Read Article →

Vietnam: President Obama Lifts Arms Embargo- Significance; By Carlyle A. Thayer

CAS article no. 0081/2016 Courtesy: Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs, May 23-May 24 2016 Please give us your analysis of this news: President Barack Obama has announced the US is fully lifting its embargo on sales of lethal weapons to Vietnam. Q. How do you assess the importance of this decision by Obama? ANSWER: President Obama’s decision to lift the arms embargo on Vietnam represents one of the capstones of his… Read Article →