Article No. 32/2019
October 18, 2019
India-China relations have been turbulent since the end of the cold war. In recent years particularly the United States -India relations have been deepening and that has been an element of concern for China. Pakistan is also an important factor in India-China relations. President Xi had launched his ambitious infrastructure development signature projects named ‘One Road One Belt’ and is popularly known as OBOR. Under the ambit of this ambitious project, China-Pakistan-Economic Corridor has been constructed since 2013. It is connecting the western restive Chinese province of Xinxiang to Gwadar of western Pakistani restive province of Baluchistan. Gwadar is strategically located at the mouth of the Persian Gulf and just 70 KM east to the Iranian border and natural harbor, Chahbahar which is being developed by India to connect with Afghanistan and Central Asia. It has become operational and goods for Afghanistan is routing through it for the last few months.
Article 370 has been abrogated by the Modi government on 5th August 2019 from Jammu & Kashmir and central rule has been imposed. It was forcibly opposed by Pakistan and also supported by China. OBOR is passing through the parts of Kashmir which were illegally given to China by Pakistan after the 1962 war with India. The Indian parliament has passed a number of resolutions declaring it as an integral part of India and pledged to take it back. In the backdrop of the abrogation of article 370, Home Minister, Amit Shah has declared in the parliament that we will take POK back. China is unofficially party to Kashmir dispute now because of illegal occupation of parts of its territory handed over by Pakistan. Ladakh which has been made Union Territory has a common border with Chinese restive western province of Xinjiang.
President Xi had arrived for the Wuhan type summit meeting with PM Modi on 11-12 October 2019. Mahabalipuram summit between PM Modi and President Xi will be unique for many counts. Wuhan took place in the backdrop of this incident to ease the relations in April 2018. PM Modi and President met 10 times for the last five and half years and Mahabalipuram is the 11th in the row. Just after his massive electoral mandate in May 2019, PM Modi and President Xi met in Bishkek for the SCO summit and agreed for Wuhan like summit in India.
Abrogation of article 370 has unleashed new spell of the terse relationship between the world two most populous countries and emerging global economic power. India and China have been cooperating on common platforms such as BRICS. But despite 21 round of high voltage bilateral dialogue with both countries NSA’s, turbulent border issue has not been resolved. However economic relations have risen when compared to past developments. In 2000 both countries had limited bilateral trade of roughly $ 5 billion and by FY 2018/19 it stood near to $ 90 billion dollars. But this high-profile trade has not contributed to resolving the most turbulent border problem though it has been successful to provide a model of engagement.
Since the end of the cold war, China has expanded its strategic relations with Pakistan to contain India within South Asia. The Pakistani economy is in very bad shape, its growth rate has been also one of the lowest in South Asia and hardly any hope of its revival in the coming years but China has sustained its relations with Pakistan. The United States which had been an ally of Pakistan during and after the cold war has been against Pakistan particularly after the elimination of Osama Bin Laden from Pakistan in May 2011. Since 2006 till now, China has clubbed its high-profile visits with Pakistan. In 2006 President Hu Jintao visited both India and Pakistan and since then it has become a tradition to visit both capitals to create a perception that Pakistan is unique for China.
Just days before President Xi Mahbalipuram visit, Pakistani PM Imran Khan visited Beijing along with his Chief of Army Staff, General Kamar Bajawa and had a range of discussion over Kashmir and CPEC.
In the UNGA, Pakistan tried its level best to internalise Kashmir issue but utterly failed and even Muslims countries have not extended their support to it. Chinese have understood that the United States is willing to embrace India within its ambit of Indo-Pacific. Chinese are alert and willing to accommodate genuine Indian concerns, highlighted when Masood Azhar was declared international terrorist by the UN and China uplifted its technical objection.
PM Modi visited China in April 2018 for the summit level talks with Chinese President, Xi Jinping. Both leaders had six rounds of exclusive summit level talk. President Xi Jinping sought to open a “new chapter” in relations between China and India as he hosted Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the last week of April 2018 for a summit aimed at mending ties strained by a border dispute.
Modi thanked Xi for meeting him twice outside Beijing, telling the Chinese leader: “This in itself shows love and affection towards India.” With 40 percent of the world's population, India and China have a responsibility to fix the world's many problems, Modi said, adding that the meeting was a “great opportunity” to do so.
Invoking President Xi's political slogan, Modi said: “Together your 'new era' dream and our 'new India' effort will be the right step for the benefit of the world.” But neither leader directly mentioned the border row nor other sources of tension in their remarks.[i]
In the backdrop of the Kashmir crisis, Foreign minister, Chief of Army Staff and the Prime Minister of Pakistan visited Beijing but Chinese have taken the almost same line of friendly advice to both countries to resolve it bilaterally as they had during Kargil crisis. Ahead of Pakistan PM Imran Khan’s talks with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping, China has changed its earlier stand on Kashmir by calling the issue a bilateral one between India and its neighbour. "We call on India and Pakistan to engage in dialogue and consultation on all issues including Kashmir issue and consolidate mutual trust,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang ahead of the crucial talks today.
The United States has also blocked visas for Chinese officers putting the condition of prevention of atrocities against Uighur Muslims in the Xinjiang region of western China in early October 2019. President Trump administration has launched a trade war against China from July 2018 and it has slowed down the growth rate of the Chinese economy. Within this prevailing situation, China is not willing to antagonise India. Chinese have witnessed the presence of President Trump in ‘Howdy Mody’ rally in Texas which has given unique support to India at the actual time of need. India has already emerged as an important Asian power and is aspiring for global status. Its economy is also doing good and it has huge market equal to entire Europe. Mahabalipuram summit is not going to bring radical results in terms of resolving border and other issues between both Asian rivals but at least it will sustain the dialogue process.
According to the Ministry of foreign affairs ( India) "The forthcoming Chennai Informal Summit will provide an opportunity for the two leaders to continue their discussions on overarching issues of bilateral, regional and global importance and to exchange views on deepening India-China Closer Development Partnership,".
This summit is a candid message from China to Pakistan that they could not afford to antagonise India frequently and there is a limit of Chinese support to Pakistan. In the post 370 scenarios, Pakistani diplomacy has been utterly failed and even Muslim countries have discarded it. Mahabalipuram summit will give some strength to President Xi in his posturing against the United States and for India, it will strengthen the comprehensiveness of Indian foreign policy given the prevailing security architecture of Asia and South and South West Asia. In sum, it will be a win-win situation for both India and China.
(Dr. Sudhir Singh is a professor of Political Science at Dyal Singh College, University of Delhi)
