India-Pakistan talks: Modi gives cause for new hope; By Shastri Ramachandaran

CAS article no: 0045/2015

Courtesy: DNA

At last, 18 months after he became Prime Minister, Narendra Modi has taken the most important step towards normalising relations with Pakistan. His sending External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj to Pakistan is a laudable step. More laudable is the way Swaraj — who in her August press conference tore into Pakistan and justified the talks being called off — conducted herself in Islamabad with such becoming grace at Modi’s bidding for resuming the stalled dialogue.

It now emerges that Swaraj attending the Heart of Asia conference on Afghanistan in Islamabad was decided during the 167-second meeting between Modi and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif on November 30 in Paris on the sidelines of the Climate Change summit. The Modi-Sharif meeting was not a spontaneous one, but planned with a view to picking up the threads of the process that begun in Ufa. It is also clear that the secret meeting of December 6 in Bangkok between the two NSAs, Ajit Doval and Lt Gen Nasir Khan Janjua — and the Foreign Secretaries — was not unscheduled either. It was to discuss the terms for talking at different levels on all issues including Kashmir, terrorism and ceasefire on the border. Both, Islamabad and New Delhi, made concessions: India got to include “terrorism” in the agenda and Pakistan had its way on “Kashmir”; and, the “Composite Dialogue” would go forward as the “Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue”. Although Modi’s swift and dramatic moves for normalising India-Pakistan relations is welcome, it needs to be understood in context. Why did he do this, when the BJP — much like the Sonia-led Congress party — was dead set against Manmohan Singh carrying forward the Composite Dialogue? India-Pakistan ties are dictated not only by external affairs but also electoral politics and domestic issues. First and foremost, Bihar’s rebuff to Modi required him to do something “positive”. Talking to Pakistan not only wins hearts at home, but also earns him a pat on the back from the US-led “international community”. Washington has been pushing Modi to reach out to Pakistan, and after Nawaz Sharif’s visit to the US, President Obama had stepped up the pressure. India was also seen as being “unreasonable” for calling off the previous round of talks. Above all, India had failed to “contain” or “isolate” Pakistan. Another reason given is that next year’s Heart of Asia conference is to be held in India. If India had not sent Swaraj to Islamabad, Pakistan’s tit-for-tat next year would have a bearing on the peace efforts in Afghanistan and adversely affect New Delhi’s role there when the US would be withdrawing forces; and, Pakistan and China leveraging their advantages. In the event, Modi had no choice but to create conditions for reviving talks. Although Modi’s moves have been made under US pressure, these would be supported by large sections of Indians because normal ties with Pakistan are in India’s interest. It would be especially welcome to the government and people of J&K and, in the region, aid the peace process in Afghanistan. However, Modi’s resolve would be tested by the Sangh Parivar, its “natural allies”, and sections of the BJP besides the Congress party which had prevented UPA’s Manmohan Singh from talking to Pakistan. There are sections in the establishment, too, that may play spoiler. The author is an independent political and foreign affairs commentator.