Article No. 006/2020
President Donald Trump visited India on February 24 - 25 2020 and became the second US president who came to India on a solo visit. During the cold war period ( 1945-1990) only three US president visited India. Since the end of the cold war, all President's visited India. The arrival of President Trump is significant in many terms. He came in the backdrop of the repeal of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir and elections are also due back in America in November 2020 and he is contesting. In the last week of February 2020, US inked a deal with the Taliban at Doha, (Qatar) which is intended to bring much-needed peace in Afghanistan. President Trump had pledged to return the US army from Afghanistan during his presidential campaign in 2016. This deal will at least provide him face-saving mechanism to eject from a decade-old war-torn Afghanistan. Pakistan has been one of the mentors of the Taliban since its inception and despite its declining status has some leverage over the Taliban. In all these backdrops, just concluded visit of President Trump is significant not only for bilateral relations but also for Asian security architecture. Deepening Indo-United States relations are all set to ensure multiplicity in Asia. This article is intended to focus on these prevailing issues.
The US has emerged as the top trade partner of India in recent years. Indo-US trade has gone horizontally since last few years. In 2017-18 it was $ 126 billion, which rose to $ 142 billion in 2018-19. The trade surplus was tilted towards India of the volume of $ 18 billion in 2018. In contrast between India and China total trade was $ 88 billion in 2018 and out of that trade surplus of $ 54 billion was tilted towards China.
In April 2018 Trump administration stressed that India had the "capability and potential" to play a weightier role in the Indo-Pacific region. Briefing reporters on the Trump administration's Indo-Pacific Strategy, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Alex Wong said it is in the U.S.' interest as well as of the entire region that India plays an increasingly weighty role in the region.
According to Mr Wong "India as a nation has invested in a free and open order. It is a democracy. It is a nation that can anchor free and open order in the Indo-Pacific region. And it's our policy to ensure that India does play that role and that it becomes over time a more influential player in the region," India can play a weightier role in Indo-Pacific region: U.S., PTI, New Delhi, April 3, 2018.
China was never comfortable with this nomenclature which has been emphasised by the United States since last one decade. In June 2019, Chinese trawler sank a Philippines boat and over 20 of its fishermen in serious crisis who have been finally rescued by the Vietnamese boats. Indrani Bagchi, ASEAN Links its Indo-Pacific Strategy to India's Outreach, Times of India, New Delhi, June 24, 2019.
Strategically also India-US relations have deepened enormously since last two decades. United States has removed Indian nuclear isolation and trying to ensure India's entry to other international elite platforms including NSG. The US has given 2+2 status to India in 2019. It means that both countries foreign and defence minister will meet together. Two rounds of this high-level dialogue have taken place till date and it has cemented strategic relations between both natural allies. The United States has given this status to a very limited number of countries.
China wishes to dominate Asia and willing to share power with the United States at the global level. In contrast, the United States is not willing to share power structure with China in Asia. But it is open to ensure multiplicity in Asia if its dominance is not going to sustain. President Donald Trump addressed a huge rally at Motara stadium in Ahmedabad on the first day of his visit and stressed the importance of Indo-Pacific and containment of radical Islamic terrorism. Next day in Delhi he opined to strengthen QUAD mechanism to ensure the free flow of navigation. It was aimed to send candid message to China that its bullish attitude in South and East China Sea's are not acceptable and the US along with like-minded countries are determined to ensure a free flow of global navigation. ASEAN in its 34th summit held at Bangkok gave adequate stress for the compliance of UN Law of the Sea and freedom of navigation. The US and other important powers like Japan and India have also stressed that freedom of navigation operations to vindicate that Chinese dictates are not acceptable to them. India under Modi has devised its Indo-Pacific policy and put ASEAN as the fulcrum of this policy. Modi's 2018 Shagari-La- Dialogue was the official articulation of India's strategy. Modi has returned into power with an improved majority for the second term ( 2014-19) in May 2019 and pledged to sustain its proactive policy for the region. In its dissuasion with the United States and Japan with India formed a trilateral platform called JAI (Japan, America and India) and stressed that centrality of ASEAN is must for evolving Indo-Pacific strategy.
Chinese Factor
This visit has taken place in the backdrop of resurgent Chinese behaviour which is intended to transcend its new earn economic might into the strategic domain. Between 2012 to 2016, China displayed a strong tendency to exaggerate its capacity to achieve its preferred objectives by promoting Sino- centric initiatives and coercing its neighbours. Chinese official discourse, diplomatic actions and academic discussions in this period all reveal a high degree of self-confidence. Zhimin Chen and Guorong Zhou, International Leadership and the Formation of China's role as a facilitative leader, World Economics and Politics, No- 3, 2017, Pp-15-34. Chinese behaviour in the backdrop of their acquisition of newly earned economic power has become unruly which is bound to create conflicts. China wanted to dominate Asia as America is dominating the globe but wanted multiple power structures at the global level. For Mearsheimer, rising powers tend to seek regional hegemony and China is heading in this direction. Mearsheimer, John J. China's Unpeaceful Rise, Current History, 2006, 105 (690), P-161.
This kind of trust deficit is also prevailing between Japan and China, ASEAN and China, South Korea and China. The South China Sea and East China Sea issues are a candid vindication of the Chinese mindset through which they have discarded the compliance of international laws regarding maritime affairs.
Washington's present perception of China is generally negative. This perception has developed sustainably since last two decades. The focal point of the Trump administration China's policy is that America must abandon its illusions, realistically face the challenges that now exist, and adopt practical measures to balance against China's rise. Under President Donald Trump administration it has further gone up. President Trump administration has launched a trade war against China. Such an aggressive US stance has highlighted the vulnerability associated with China's heavy reliance on US high-tech imports and has consequently sparked discussion among scholars about the gradual decoupling of the two economics. Dingding Chen, The case of ZTE and US-China Relations, The Diplomat, 2 May 2018.
China and the United States has a trust deficit and instead of narrowing down it has widened. The United States has also publicly stated that free international navigation within international waters is one of its policy priorities. United States has deployed its warships within the South China Sea, which has been disputed after Chinese claims over its entire blue water and contested by its ASEAN neighbours. The United States has also started 'Malabar Exercises' along with India and Japan since 2007 to ensure a free flow of international navigation. Later on, Australia also joined it and it was one of the areas which were stressed by the Americans during President Trump Delhi visit.
India- China bilateral relations have been turbulent since last many decades. Trade has gone up but strategic deficit still rules the roost. PM Modi and Chinese President Xi met twelve times since last 6 years and had two submit level talks in the backdrop of Doklam crisis in the middle of 2017. In the backdrop of the repeal of Article 370, President Xi came Mahbalipuram for 2nd summit with PM Modi in October 2019. Both leaders stressed for a better state of a relationship. But in the meanwhile, China kept supporting Pakistan on international platforms and that has not only kept trust deficit prevailing but even further widened it.
In recent years, Chinese power oligarchy has taken a policy decision that confrontation with the United States will be detrimental for it. Confronting with hostility from a gamut of quarters, China has not taken the tough approach it would have formerly done in dealing with external conflicts. Since late 2017, Beijing has been sending a clear signal that it is toning down its rhetoric to deal with the regional powers as well as neighbours. 'Fairly gauging China-US strength gap, Global Times, 2 August 2018.
It is also contemplating to develop a cooperative relationship with regional foes and even with disputant countries of the South China Sea. Since the arrival of President Xi in the power, Chinese have showcased OBOR as one of the largest global infrastructure projects in recent history connecting many continents through overland and blue water. President Xi fondly proclaimed that it is his signature project. It is also considered as an extension of Chinese strategic designs and an alternative to rescue form an impending 'Malacca Dilemma". In the process, a new wave of allegations has emerged against OBOR that it is an extension of the Chinese 'Debt Trap'. Hearing on China's Belt and Road Initiative; Five years later (Washington DC; United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission), 25 January 2018. In recent months series of dissent against OBOR has been noticed by many countries where it is getting implemented.
Indo-Pacific Strategy
The security dimensions of the Indo-Pacific strategy relies primarily on Australia, India and Japan ( the Quad members); and there are elements in the security dialogue among these countries that are targeted at China. For example, the joint ministerial statement released by the Australia-Japan-US Trilateral Strategic Dialogue in August 2018 expressed 'serious concerns about developments in the South China Sea'. Australia -Japan-United States Trilateral Strategic Dialogue joint ministerial statement, 5 August 2018. India is also one of the important partners in this process. Chinese are apprehensive against the nomenclature of 'Indo-Pacific' strategy. President Donald Trump has mentioned Indo-Pacific in almost all of his public engagements while in India. According to the eminent strategic thinker, Ambassador G. Parthasarathy "It was agreed that the Quad, comprising the US, Japan, Australia and India would enhance maritime cooperation. ASEAN countries are being advised to stand firm on exaggerated claims by China on its maritime boundaries which violate international law. The Quad is set to work together to deal with Chinese pressures on countries like Sri Lanka and the Maldives, by their involvement in construction projects in these countries, which lead the recipients into unrepayable debts. The recipients are then compelled to hand over strategic ports like Hambantota in Sri Lanka to Chinese control." Ambassador G. Parthasarathy, The Trump Visit, Why China will take Note, Rediff. Com, February 28, 2020.
The United States, India and Japan are aware of the expanding of OBOR in recent years. Japan and India have already started providing an alternative to needy countries. President Trump has confirmed that the United States will be part of it from now. According to Ambassador Parthasarathy "China is aware of the cooperation between India and Japan to coordinate their economic cooperation policies in countries like Myanmar, Sri Lanka and the Maldives, to deal with Chinese attempts to get a strategic presence and military bases in such countries. The announcement that India would cooperate with the US on such issues will be seriously taken note of in China." Ibid
Conclusion
The United States is extremely happy with this prevailing trust deficit among major Asian countries and working on the realignment of forces in her favour within Asia. Due to historical baggage and Chinese arrogance due to new earn economic power, many Asian countries have serious divergences over the host of issues against China. India is one of them. The United States has launched 'Indo-Pacific' debate within this prevailing anarchic security architecture of Asia to garner maximum benefit out of this prevailing situation and sustain their hegemony in Asia. The United States is also intended to maximise its allies through this policy in Asia. After nuclear treaty ( 2008), India-United States relations have also depended enormously and in this backdrop, India has also accelerated its bilateral relations with Japan, ASEAN, South Korea and other important countries of the region. Act East Policy was launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014. By 2014, the Look East Policy had performed well but after 23 years of its implementation, many new challenges had inevitably cropped up that needed to be contained at the earliest. Act East Policy is one of the hallmarks of Modi's foreign policy to cope up with these emerging challenges. Over time, the locus of the policy has extended from Myanmar up to Australia. Singh, Antara Ghosal, India's Vision for Connectivity; A Discourse Analysis in India and Connectivity Frameworks, Delhi Policy Group Report, 2017.
Modi has adopted a proactive foreign policy. Before that Indian foreign policy was reactive. Modi changed the contours of Indian foreign policy by adopting ample proactiveness. Moreover, countries from Myanmar to Australia had desired India to ensure a kind of counterbalance role against China. Chinese strategic thinker, Sun Tzu wrote a seminal book 'Art of War'. The central argument of this book is ' A king must win the war without waging the war.' Sun Tzu: 'Know yourself, know your enemy: A hundred battles, a hundred victories'. The Chinese have adopted this cardinal policy to maximise their interests in Asia. Despite high profile trade relations, major countries of Asia have serious divergences of strategic interests against China. Act East Policy is in sync with the United States wishing that India must be proactive within the ambit of 'Indo-Pacific'. President Trump visit has given new momentum to already deepening relationship between the largest and oldest democracies of the globe. It has also sent a candid message to China that its bully attitude within Asia cannot be tolerated. Chinese have already started showing off the accommodation of interests of their neighbours. This visit will further compel Chinese to be liberal while dealing with regional countries. The South China Sea will be a litmus test for the Chinese. The eruption of Coronavirus has already reduced the bargaining power of the Chinese. President Trump has to score political dividends back in the home due to this successful visit. This visit has also indicated that the United States is very much intended to enhance its all-round presence in the Indo-Pacific and India has emerged as a fulcrum of this policy. The prevailing convergences of interests between both natural allies have also contributed positively to the compliance of international laws in the region. This visit has also encouraged like-minded countries to further facilitate all rounds of joint efforts to keep Asia multiple.
(Dr Sudhir Singh teaches Political Science in Dyal Singh College, University of Delhi, New Delhi)
