Will Naga Accord Bring Peace to Volatile NE?; By JK Verma

CAS article no: 0002/2015

Courtesy: www.bureaucracytoday.com

The accord signed on August 3 between the Government of India and an insurgent outfit, Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isaac-Muivah), was the culmination of more than 80 rounds of prolonged peace talks which continued for more than 16 years. However, with only one faction of Naga insurgents signing the accord, it needs to be seen whether the historic agreement will bring peace in the volatile northeastern region of India.

The NSCN (IM) is the largest Naga terrorist outfit but there are three more important separatist groups, namely NSCN (Khaplang), NSCN (Unification) and NSCN (KZ). Besides these groups, there are a few splinter factions of Naga rebel groups also. The present accord was signed only by one group, albeit the most powerful group. The possibility that the NSCN (K) would agree with the peace accord is remote as 75-year-old SS Khaplang is a Myanmar national. Besides, he has a permanent residence in China and it is a known fact that he works under the direct command of the Chinese administration. According to intelligence reports, the NSCN (K) has developed alliance with other insurgent groups, especially the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and some splinter Meitei groups. The NSCN (K) killed 18 Army personnel on June

4 in Manipur to prove the strength and capability of the outfit. NSCN (IM) General Secretary Thuingaleng Muivah who signed the August 3 accord has stated that since the present peace agreement does not deviate from the basic principles of the NSCN, other insurgent groups will also accept the accord. Moreover, there are chances of accommodation of other outfits too. The genesis of the Naga problem is more than 100 years old. Nonetheless it came to surface when a separatist leader, the late Angami Zapu Phizo,declared Nagaland as an independent country on August 14, 1947. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has appropriately remarked that the Naga problem was bequeathed to India by

Britishers as part of their strategy to divide and rule.

As the euphoria of the accord is receding people want to know about the provisions of the agreement which have been kept secret not only from the public but also from the Chief Ministers of Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. At present both the parties are not revealing the terms

and conditions of the accord which indicates that the agreement was signed in a great hurry maybe because of the deteriorating health condition of NSCN (IM) president Isak Chishi Swu who is 85 years old. Numerous issues, including several major issues, were not sorted out yet which clearly puts a question mark on the implementation and success of the accord.

Greater Nagaland and Demand

The demand for a Greater Nagaland (The Nagalim) is a vital clause of the 16-point demand of the NSCN. A Greater Nagaland includes present Nagaland, the Naga-dominant areas of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Manipur and some areas of Myanmar. A Greater Nagaland includes a territory of more than 120,000 sq km while present Nagaland has an area of approximately 16,579 sq km only. The demand of the NSCN to carry arms in the area of its influence is also important for the rebel outfit. However, it will be very difficult for the Indian Government to concede to this condition. The statement of Prakash Javadekar, Minister of State with Independent Charge, that the NSCN (IM) has forsaken the demand for a Greater Nagaland and also conceded to lay down arms was immediately contradicted by the NSCN (IM) spokesperson which clearly indicates that all terms and conditions of the accord were not sorted out. All this also indicates that the present accord may not be implemented at an early date. Firstly, there are several contentious issues which are not resolved. Secondly, the agreement is with one faction of the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland and others may not agree with the stipulations mentioned in the agreement. Thirdly, all the three States have the Congress Governments and consider the demand for a Greater Nagaland as against their territorial integrity. The Chief Ministers will not surrender any part of their States for a Greater Nagaland. The Congress Party which is opposing all the moves of the National Democratic Party will never permit its Chief Ministers to accept this agreement. However, the accord which was signed by the most powerful outfit of Nagas will certainly trim down violent incidents in the region.

Vital for 'Act East Policy'

The peace accord is also vital for the Prime Minister’s “Act East” policy as connecting North-East India with South-East Asia is feasible only if insurgency in the area is mitigated. The Indian Government should convince the Myanmar authorities to control terrorist outfits operating from their areas. Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal have controlled the movement of terrorists from their areas. The security forces have to work overtime so that the NSCN (K) does not succeed in carrying out terrorist activity in India which will enhance its admissibility and will depict the futility of the accord. Intelligence sources claim that the signing of the Naga peace accord is a beginning and very soon numerous other separatist groups in the North-East as well as in other parts of India will negotiate and lay down their arms. A large number of terrorists have realized that they cannot achieve their demands and they have no future. Consequently they are in search of some honourable solution. Quite a few terrorist outfits which have declared a ceasefire may also like to have some agreement with the Government. A few terrorist organizations which are presently negotiating with the Government may expedite the process of talks. An intelligence operator claims that several terrorist groups, including Naxalite leaders, are worried that more surrenders will reduce their strength. Hence in the near future these extremist outfits will execute a few terror plans to show their strength. However, the security forces are ready to face this onslaught. The agreement is extraordinary. It also indicates that the Modi Government wants to settle disputes which are hampering the progress and development of the country. An agreement with Bangladesh was the beginning and this accord is the second. It is expected that more agreements are in the offing.

The writer retired as a Director of the Cabinet Secretariat. He is now a Delhi based strategic analyst and is a member of the panel of various training institutes of Intelligence and paramilitary organisations.