What is Japan's New Security Strategy Under Takaichi Sanae?

By Dr. Satoru Nagao and Dr. A Adityanjee

Image courtesy: Fortune

Introduction:

Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae of Japan won decisively the mid-term elections for Lower House of Japanese parliament on February 8th, 2026. She had taken a political gamble in calling for midterm elections prematurely after being sworn in as the PM on October 21^st, 2025. It is the first time in history that Japan has had an elected female Prime Minister. There is a high possibility that she will reform Japan's security policy based on her resounding victory. Therefore, in this article, we analyze what PM Takaichi's security policy is likely to be and how it will be unfolded in near future. We will attempt to analyze the geopolitical situation after her historic victory using three important questions. Firstly, what is the meaning and significance of this massive victory of PM Takaichi in these elections? Secondly, what is going to be her strategic direction after this unprecedented electoral mandate? And finally, what is the implication for Japan-India bilateral partnership vis-à-vis relations with the US and Australia?

Electoral Calculus:

Since Ms. Takaichi was sworn in as the prime minister of Japan, she has been an extremely popular leader. Surveys in the Japanese media indicated that she has maintained her approval ratings as a leader above 70% level. This towering popularity has continued beyond the lower house election in February 2026. PM Takaichi-led Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 316 seats out of 465 seats in the elections to the Lower House of Japanese parliament (Diet). And along with the coalition partner Japan Innovation Party (JIP), the ruling coalition got 352 seats of 465 (more than two-thirds majority) of the Lower House. This number is very strong indeed and constitutes parliamentary super-majority (75.7%) in the Lower House. 

Currently, the LDP-JIP alliance lacks a majority in the Upper House (House of Councilors) which has a total of 248 seats. There is a possibility that any LDP-JIP's draft bill will be rejected in the Upper House. However, in Japan's legislative system, if two-thirds of the Lower House supported, the draft bill becomes the law, even after it was rejected by the Upper House. With two-third majority in the Lower House, PM Takaichi has super-strong parliamentary support for her legislative agenda.

Why did Japanese voters support her so strongly? From a diplomatic perspective, changes in the rules of world affairs affect electoral outcomes. In this election, not only the right-of-the center, conservative LDP, but also other parties on the political right maintained or increased their seats in the National Diet. For example, the coalition partner JIP increased its seats from 34 to 36. Opposition party, Democratic Party for People (DPP), increased from 27 to 28. Sansei party increased their seat tally from 2 to 15. In contrast to these political right parties, the political left (Centrist Reform Alliance) lost heavily and reduced its tally from 172 to 49 seats only in the lower house. Thus, the Japanese political-right parties reaped the harvest of victory and have advantages, clearly.  Indeed, this is not the first time this trend has been observed. The last Upper House elections in July 2025 showed the same trend: the political right gained seats, while the political left lost seats. Why? One major change last year was the arrival of Trump administration in the US. In July 2025, President Trump was able to coerce then Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba to agree to $550 billion investment commitment to be invested in U.S. projects selected by President Trump. Subsequently, a weakened PM Shigeru Ishiba resigned as Prime Minister and his Cabinet on Oct 21, 2025, to take responsibility for the LDP’s election defeat in the Upper House elections. Now, Japanese people believe that politicians from the political right parties are the only ones who can talk with President Trump. And finally, President Trump expressed his support to PM Takaichi just before the election day. Such open support demonstrated that political rightwing parties are better suited to addressing US concerns with firmness while safeguarding Japanese interests.

In addition, China's wolf warrior diplomatic policy ended up bolstering PM Takaichi's popularity. Since PM Takaichi explained the situation of the Taiwan crisis and Japan's putative support to future US intervention, China has put pressure on Japan repeatedly. The Chinese tactics have made Japanese people very frustrated. Especially, the incidence of Chinese fighter jet locking its laser on the Japanese fighter jet was too provocative. This national frustration and humiliation contributed to PM Takaichi's victory as the Japanese people wanted a strong leader.

Domestically, there are two additional reasons. PM Takaichi's novel image as a confident female leader contributed to her victory. By examining developments in the opposition parties, we can identify what actually happened.  Despite political right parties winning, the Japan Conservative Party lost the only one seat they had. Instead, Team Mirai received 11 seats, even though they had none previously. The old image of the Japan Conservative Party was unpopular. A new image of Team Mirai received support. PM Takaichi's popularity also came from this "new" image. She is the first female PM in Japan. Within one month of her swearing-in, she met with many foreign leaders, including those from the US and China, and made a good impression. Her image is "novel" and implies that "something positive will happen" under her stewardship. Thus, such a “can do” image contributed to her victory. In contrast to her new image as PM, opposition parties lacked this "new" image. Two top leaders of the political left party (CRA) have quite old images and stereotypes. Thus, as a rival of PM Takaichi, their disadvantages are clear to political observers and electorate alike.

Therefore, PM Takaichi won due to both diplomatic and domestic factors. Currently, PM Takaichi has even more power than former PM late Shinzo Abe, her mentor, ever had. Will she continue as a PM for nearly eight years like PM Abe? There is at least one fact. If she does not dissolve the Lower House, there will be no election till summer of 2028. The Upper House elections are due only in summer of 2028. Next few years could be the time for her to prove her gravitas and governance skills. 

Japan’s Strategic Posture:

If PM Takaichi got strong support domestically, what is her security policy? Indeed, she could be the next "PM Shinzo Abe," who is her mentor. There is a tradition of the PM of Japan to pray at the Ise shrine at the beginning of the year. In the case of PM Takaichi, she visited the Ise shrine with the picture of PM Abe. Indeed, there are many similarities between PM Takaichi's address and the actions of PM Abe. This highlights the fact that PM Takaichi is trying to be the real successor of PM Abe and his legacy. This also means that she will follow the policies of PM Abe strategically and develop his ideas further.

Does she have enough leadership skills to do that? PM Abe was a skilled diplomat. He was the first leader in the world to visit Mr. Trump when he won the election in 2015. And it is well known that PM Abe established very good relations with PM Modi of India. After the assassination of former PM Abe, many world leaders joined to deliver their eulogies at the national funeral that was conducted with full state honors. His international appeal and influence was created by PM Abe’s diplomatic skills and personal rapport with world leaders. PM Abe visited 1.9 countries per month during his approximately 8-year tenure (albeit interrupted) as PM of Japan. PM Abe visited more than five countries in each region, including North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, West Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, Oceania, Southeast Asia, and Northeast Asia. This is remarkable because PM Kishida visited 1.6 countries per month, and PM Ishiba visited only 0.8 countries per month.

In case of PM Takaichi, since she was sworn in as a PM, she has been very active diplomatically. She attended the ASEAN meeting in Malaysia, she hosted President Trump's visit to Japan and participated in APEC summit in South Korea. She also attended the G20 meeting in South Africa within nearly one month and established good relations with the leaders of Southeast Asian countries, the US, South Korea. China, India, South Africa, and Europe, etc. This was unbelievably a live example of active diplomacy based on her slogan "Work, Work, Work, Work, and Work." She likes diplomacy with a high level of skill.

What is her security policy? She is committed to the reform of Japan's security policy and establishment. By April 2026, she must prepare the next annual budget. This would include raising the defense budget to reach 2% of GDP. The defense budget will continue to increase to become 5% of Japan’s GDP. By the same April deadline, she is planning to ease the restrictions on arms exports from Japan. It will promote arms trade with allies and partners to promote security cooperation. By July 2026, she plans to establish the National Intelligence Agency for promoting counter-espionage capacity against enemy spies and strengthening cooperation with the intelligence organizations of allies and strategic partners. In December 2026, Japan will revise its National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Mid-Term Defense Program based on the defense budget allocation being raised to 5% of GDP.

Will she amend Article 9 of the post-World War II Constitution? This is important because she will spend huge amounts of political capital if she tries to change Article 9. In Japan's legal system, amendment to the Constitution requires two-thirds of the members of both the Upper House and the Lower House. After that, in a National Referendum, the support of a decisive majority of voters is needed to carry forward the amendment. This is very tough indeed and it has not happened so far despite a lot of chatter in this regard. However, it is interesting that the Japanese Self-Defense Force (SDF) is established under the current constitution that was dictated by Allied generals after the World War II. And now, Japan possesses helicopter carriers and long-range missiles under the same constitution. Why this has happened? Indeed, in the past, the Japanese government explained in the National Diet that Japan cannot possess "offensive purpose" ICBMs, aircraft carriers, etc. But Japan's current helicopter carriers are only for "defensive purposes," so there is no problem. If so, does Japan need to amend the constitution to possess a "defensive purpose" nuclear weapon deterrent? Indeed, Japan's so-called "Pacifism" is not based on the constitution but geopolitical convenience. 

Currently, PM Takaichi is committed to reforming the nomenclature of the ranks in the SDF. In English language, a colonel of the SDF is just a "colonel." There is no difference between the foreign military ranks and ranks in the Japanese SDF. But in Japanese language, there are two names for "colonel." When the Japanese called "colonel" of the Japan Imperial Army," they used the term "TAISA" in Japanese. When the Japanese call "colonel" of other foreign militaries, Japanese use same "TAISA," too. But only when Japanese call "colonel" of the SDF, they use the term "ISSA" because SDF is not a formal army. The same phenomenon is witnessed in case of the SDF term for an artillery unit. In Japanese, an artillery unit is called "TOKKA," which means "special unit." When the Japanese refer to the artillery unit of foreign militaries and the Japanese Imperial Army, they use the term "HOUHEI." This is an example of the same pattern of semantic camouflage and terminological obfuscation. There are many such taboos prevalent in the SDF. Simply said, Japan's so-called "Pacifism" is avoiding use of military terminology, words and things. If Japan reforms these strange taboos one by one, this would indeed be  a real change.

If the process of amendment of the constitution is so difficult, PM Takaichi should discredit these trivial taboos before she commits to amending the constitution and avoid wasting her political resources. Will she do that? It really depends on her political savvy and pragmatic decision making process.

China and Takaichi’s Japan:

PM Takaichi has a history of visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, an ancient Shinto war shrine, including during her time as a minister. While she has previously attended in person on August 15, 2025, she opted to send a ritual flower offering (tamagushi) rather than visit during the October 2025 autumn festival to avoid diplomatic tensions with China. Later, Prime Minister Takaichi suggested a Chinese attack on Taiwan could be a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan. The Chinese diplomat who made the "cutting the neck" comment is Xue Jian, the Chinese Consul General in Osaka. In November 2025, he posted on X.com that Japan's "dirty neck" should be cut off regarding Taiwan-related comments made by Prime Minister Takaichi, leading to a diplomatic protest from Tokyo. The comment was in response to statements by Xue Jian, a wolf warrior diplomat apparently wrote, "We have no choice but cut off that dirty neck that has been lunged at us without hesitation. Are you ready?". Japan's Foreign Ministry strongly protested the "extremely inappropriate" comment and demanded its removal, while some Japanese politicians called for his expulsion. PM Takaichi will be more assertive in guarding Japanese sovereignty over the Senkaku islands and will counter Chinese hostile and intrusive activities in Japan’s airspace and exclusive maritime domain.

Japan-India Relationship and Indo-pacific Maritime Geopolitics

View from the analysis above, PM Takaichi's security policy could be based on PM Abe's security policy and strategy. Therefore, she will concretely materialize the Indo-Pacific and QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) strategies, which PM Abe introduced to the world. When PM Abe addressed the "Confluence of Two Seas" in the Indian parliament in 2007, he had already mentioned cooperation among Japan, India, the US, and Australia. And when he published "Asia's Democratic Security Diamond," he explained his real intention behind QUAD.

The Indo-Pacific and QUAD are based on counter-China strategy. Because compared with "Asia-Pacific", which does not include India and Bhutan, "Indo-Pacific" includes all territorial issues of China. And QUAD is a group of all great powers in the Indo-Pacific except China. But the most important country in the Indo-Pacific and QUAD is India. Without India, "Asia-Pacific" is enough to talk about Asia. And Japan and Australia are formal US treaty allies. If so, to talk about Japan-US-Australia cooperation, Japan does not need a new concept like QUAD. Therefore, PM Abe is focusing on India very strongly, and he was really pro-India.

As the Trump administration’s enthusiasm for the QUAD has diminished, and it has floated the alternative bloc SQUAD in 2024, Japan will remain engaged in the Indo-pacific maritime domain. The "Squad" refers to a U.S.-led, four-nation security bloc (US, Japan, Australia, Philippines) designed to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific through joint patrols and military interoperability.  SQUAD complements existing alliances, focusing on regional security and maritime stability in the South China Sea. Under PM Takaichi Japan will perhaps focus more on the Japan-India-Australia (JIA) trilateral, a strategic partnership focused on enhancing maritime security, supply chain resilience, and regional stability in the Indo-Pacific. Emerging as a key "middle power" minilateral, it acts as a complementary, more flexible, and focused grouping alongside the broader QUAD to counter coercive activities and uphold a rules-based international order in the Indo-pacific maritime domain.

How about PM Takaichi? Is she pro-India? Compared with PM Abe, her preference is unclear. But she wants to continue PM Abe's policy. She has high diplomatic skills. And she makes Japan strong. In this case, we should remember the word of PM Abe in the Indian Parliament in 2007. He said, "a strong India is in the best interest of Japan, and a strong Japan is in the best interest of India”.  Under PM Takaichi’s leadership, PM Abe’s words will be concretely materialized and memorialized.

Japan and Strategic Autonomy:

Since the end of the World War II, Japan is a treaty-bound ally of the US. Japan’s post-war pacifist constitution was drafted by US General Douglas McArthur. Japan remains as an ally and junior partner of the US in all respects. It is unlikely that Japan will pursue strategic autonomy under PM Takaichi and take more independent geopolitical stance. However, despite the strategic bonding with the US, Japan will be more vociferous and assertive in international arena under PM Takaichi. As the world slowly moves into a nascent multipolarity geo-political scenario, PM Takaichi will build stronger strategic bridges with Canada, EU and ASEAN keeping in view the mercurial and unpredictable posturing of the current US administration. In contrast to  China and India, Japan under PM Takaichi is unlikely to divest its US treasury bonds holdings of more than one trillion US dollars. Japan, under PM Takaichi, will certainly not consider nuclear weapons status owing to its history of being the only victim of nuclear weapons holocaust in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and of course due to the US pressure against horizontal proliferation. She perhaps will let the dispute with the Russian Federation on Kurile islands remain frozen for the time being as Japan is not in a strategic situation to have a hot war with Russia. On the other hand, she will not concede the sovereignty of Takeshima island to South Korea.

Conclusions:

Japan under PM Takaichi will embrace the strategic mantra of “Continuity with Change” instead of a sudden, massive and overwhelming revolution in strategic posture and signaling. Japan under PM Takaichi will remerge as an Asian regional power with greater focus on Indo-pacific maritime domain, with closer security relationships with ASEAN, Australia, India, and Indonesia.  Japan-India strategic partnership will be a decisive balancing factor in containing and constraining a belligerent and hegemonic China in the Indo-pacific maritime domain while heralding a multi-polar Asia. PM Takaichi is the true inheritor of late Shinzo Abe’s strategic and geopolitical legacy. With her strategic outlook and security posturing, she will be an important factor in transforming 21^st century into a truly Asian century instead of a Chinese century.   

(Dr. Adityanjee is the President of the Council for Strategic Affairs and is based in the US.  Dr Satoru Nagao is a non-resident Fellow at the Hudson Institute, Washington DC and is based in Japan. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of CAS.)